Apr 8, 2026
Economic Resilience in a Volatile Era
Notice: This Opinion article was written by Javad Hatami, CEO & Co-founder of Builtrix and published in JournalPT Green. You can read the full text of the opinion piece in Portuguese. Below is a summary in English:
As we enter 2026, global markets are shaken by geopolitical tensions, notably the US and Israel’s attack on Iran. For Portugal and Europe, this isn’t just a political worry—it’s a direct threat to hard-earned economic stability. Commodity price swings heighten uncertainty, but a “K-shaped recovery” is dividing those reliant on fossil fuels from those investing in energy independence and decarbonized assets.
The Economic Cost of Stagflation Threat
Conflict in the Middle East risks triggering “boomerang inflation.” Although electricity prices in the EU dropped 20% in 2024, they remain high, and war could send oil and gas prices soaring—accelerating stagflation. Portugal’s GDP grew 1.9% in 2025 and is expected to rise 1.8% in 2026, outpacing the Eurozone average. Still, this resilience is fragile, threatened by energy price spikes. Real estate and construction costs are already under pressure, with Portugal’s home prices jumping 17.6% in 2025.
K-Shaped Divergence: Winners and Losers
Upper Arm (Growth): Sustainable, decarbonized assets are now seen as essential—offering protection from operational cost surges caused by conflict. Across Europe, 79% of industry leaders agree that ESG performance will significantly impact asset values. Energy-efficient and renewable-integrated assets, such as data centers and new energy infrastructure, are now top investment prospects.
Lower Arm (Decline): “Brown” assets—older, less efficient buildings—are seeing real prices drop, vulnerable to obsolescence as EU rules tighten. Their reliance on fossil fuels makes them risky in an unstable world.
Decarbonization: A Wartime Strategy
In times of intense conflict, Portugal’s energy-efficient and decarbonized assets provide unique protection from rising energy prices. The country’s focus on renewables—expected to reach 44% of energy supply by 2027—offers local resilience against global supply chain disruptions.
Investment in “smart energy”—like AI-powered autonomous buildings and dynamic grids—is advancing. These systems can adjust and integrate distributed resources, ensuring the economy remains operational even amidst global instability.
Energy Independence: The New Resilience
The key takeaway for investors and policymakers: energy independence is the only long-term guarantee of economic security. Portugal’s National Long-Term Strategy targets a 34% cut in primary energy use by 2050, boosted by government-supported “greener” renovations. Efficiency and independence are now the “new resilience”—making Portugal a relatively safe haven for capital, with tangible, decentralized assets like solar panels, heat pumps, and smart energy upgrades offering the strongest protection against future crises.
As global powers prioritize “me-first” energy policies, Portugal may face challenges in accessing critical minerals needed for its energy future.
Conclusion
In a world marked by geopolitical instability, Portugal’s commitment to decarbonization and energy independence positions it as a leader in resilience. Decentralized, sustainable assets are not just environmental goals—they’re strategic shields in uncertain times.
Javad Hatami – CEO of Builtrix